So You Bought The Wrong Monkey Picture?
So You Bought The Wrong Monkey Picture?
🙈🙉🙊
(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)
Gm everyone. Another week of Apes completely owning the entire market in anticipation of Otherside. For the first time in a little while, solid projects in the upper-mid-tier have taken a prolonged beating (>2 weeks), with most eth flowing to the top (as always) and shiny object syndrome taking a stronghold over new entrants with smaller budgets and shorter attention spans. The quick “alpha” still remains in WL mints for what the masses deem “high-quality projects” – that being said, big winners are appearing less and less frequently. Traditional equity markets looked gross last week and ETH still remains heavily correlated with the Nasdaq which is worth keeping in mind. That being said, ETH is still in an ideal range for NFTs to thrive, and with gas back above the 200s this week, depending on which corner of the market you’re hanging out in, a lot of NFTs are still on fire. Should be another bumpy week with plenty of winners and losers as Otherside drops on 4/30. GL all, let’s have another great week.
Notes:
MC Pass: If you’re interested in joining our community:
Another great career section at the bottom of the newsletter courtesy of TheChild! Coinbase is looking to build up its NFT team 👀.
We’ll be diving into Music NFTs for the first time this week with our resident analyst Angelo.
Meme courtesy of Tokyo Sunbather.
Macro Update:
A lot of action this week for better and for worse. While we still see new mints struggling more than ever, the projects that are able to mint out quickly are seemingly taking off. SMOWL and Ugly People are good examples of this. Pasta has a good take on this below. Solid mid-tier projects that chop consistently in the 2-3 ETH range for months seem to slowly be trending down as people’s attention spans just can’t handle the euphoria around them.
With the announcement of Coinbase NFT this week, that exit pump where you expected to dump your NFTs on normies just might not be a thing anymore. New money clearly wants newer and shiny objects, and it seems unlikely that a first time buyer is going to buy a legacy mid tier project at 2-3 ETH for their first-ever purchase. Since we’re the OG Creepz bulls, we’ll actually use Creepz as an example as a project that is currently struggling in this environment. The team has practically gone above and beyond on their promises and roadmap but at the same time the floor remains in a steady downturn since early February.
While there’s a lot to pick apart, we think the biggest issue has to do with onboarding new members. Most new players in the space frankly aren’t looking to join a community with a long-term mindset, or learn how to play a game within what is a fairly complicated ecosystem. They’d much rather ape into a project on OpenSea’s top 100 ‘7 day’ volume chart that’s currently pumping like Eightbit Me (this is using IRL friends as an example who have gotten into NFTs in the last 2 weeks).
Building off of this, these mid-tier projects are essentially in purgatory. When looking at the chart below (h/t punk9059 for these great charts) our thinking that liquidity for blue chips and new projects are being sourced from the middle-tier feels validated. Almost every single mid-cap project here is down sharply in just 1 week.
With traditional markets in flux, ETH has stayed below the $3,000 USD level for a few days now. We haven’t really seen NFTs react to this but as long as the price isn’t too volatile, this is theoretically the ideal range for our jpegs to thrive. Overall, the *cautiously bullish* approach over the last 6 weeks or so has performed very well and we haven’t changed our attitude yet – there is still juice to squeeze.
Finally, it’s been some time since we’ve spoke about Punks vs. Apes. Seedphrase is definitely controversial but here’s a good thread worth reading. Back when we first started MintCalendar, we used to discuss both collections as the barometer for the overall market (which they were at the time). Punks used to be the clear cut #1, but apes have surpassed them recently, and the Yuga Labs acquisition really solidifies this. Floor punks especially, have been getting no love recently and have been relatively flat/down since the Yuga acquisition.
However, there has never been a sale greater than 1000 ETH for BAYC and there have been 12 for the Punks. There’s also been over 5 *legit* sales of Punks over 2000 ETH. BAYC doesn’t come anywhere close to this. While this is just an observation, the high end of Punks still remain the ultimate flex compared to Apes (for now).
Introduction to MC Music (written by Angelo):
As mentioned in our roadmap, we’re looking to build out MC music. While everyone is having fun trading digital images of cartoons, when this does end, where will the alpha go next? We believe that the potential for music NFTs is massive, so we’ve brought on our new resident music expert Angelo to dive a bit deeper. Angelo is a world class musician who has toured the country, with roots in traditional finance as well. Looking forward to hearing everyone’s feedback and if music NFTs are something you’d like to hear more about! Anyways, let’s get into it…
Angelo here – we’re suuuuper excited to announce MC Music, where we’ll dive into a few interesting developments in the music NFT space. Some quick macro and our general thoughts:
Obviously most of us are laser focused on getting rich with degen PFP plays, there’s no denying that. This hype has been seemingly endless and we truly don’t know for sure when it will taper off. It’s the wild west out here and longer term we recognize that maybe, idk, Moonbirds really shouldn’t be at 37 ETH 🤷🏻♂️. That being said, when the pfp show does come to and end, we believe that there will be plenty more real world applications (like music) for NFT’s that we can sink our te(ETH) into.
Amongst all this pfp noise, we’ve been seeing some seriously legitimate (perhaps industry changing) use cases for NFT’s emerging in live entertainment - specifically sports, gaming, fine arts and music. A lot are still garbage, but some of these new projects are focused on solving real issues faced by both artists and fans, so let’s shed light on the ones leading the charge.
There certainly have been a bunch of successful recent mints by recording artists, existing as both audio NFTs (check out Snoop Dogg’s releases on OS to get a feel) as well as PFP projects (some with added benefits like airdrops, giveaways, free tickets and metaverse access) - Avenged Sevenfold, just sold out a 10K PFP collection with perks and it’s up 100% on secondary.
In a market this new, nobody seems to know exactly what style project will be a hit. Luckily for artists, their fans tend to gobble up whatever project they put out, because A) they’re true fans, and B) it's an NFT (capturing the zeitgeist).
Putting our community of big-brained risk-taking giga chads aside for a moment, the majority of the world runs a fairly simple equation in their head when assessing whether or not to buy an NFT:
Me see birb NFT on Twitter sell for $$$,
Me see good musician say “I make NFT”
Me see $$$ in own eyes and purchase NFT from musician
*Rinse and Repeat*
While we hope that more thought actually goes into making an investment decision in the future, the majority of these new mints still give fans the ability to support their favorite artists, and are rewarded for doing so, either from selling on secondary or reaping the benefit of added perks that come with owning the token. Obviously we can’t say for sure that every mint will be a success, but it definitely allows artists to profit in an industry where they’re generally taken advantage of by venues, record and ticketing companies. While the value of Music NFT’s is still nascent compared to PFP’s, new music related projects are surfacing that are definitely creating some buzz within the space.
For the first edition of MC Music, we figured we’d dive deep on some protocols working on improving ownership and distribution, with specific projects to come later on. Let’s hop in…
Royal
Twitter | Discord | Website | Opensea
This is a sleek royalty sharing platform created by DJ 3LAU. 3LAU already had some success selling Audio NFT’s – last year he sold a limited run of 33 NFT’s, and the collection fetched $11.3M US beans. In Royal, buyers can purchase LDA’s (Limited Digital Assets), from top shelf musicians. LDA’s are a special type of NFT that have built in partial ownership of a song's streaming royalty rights, plus tier levels (gold, platinum and diamond) are associated with unique perks, exclusive content and other benefits.
The site is still in beta (they’ve only dropped songs from four artists to date), but it already looks promising for artists as all collections completely sold out within a few minutes of dropping. Diplo’s song “Don’t Forget My Love” netted about $400K from the mint, offering up an 80% stake to holders. Secondary isn’t looking super active (as we’d expect from such a young sub-market) with the few collections that have dropped having a small pump right after mint, but generally low volume in the following weeks.
The 3 tiers for the Diplo song (listed below) are priced based on the perks and percent ownership. Because these NFT’s have legitimate value accrual tied to real world song performance, unlike the common PFP projects we usually cover, the mint price - although relatively high - is a better accounting measure for future value gain. All tiers are poised to unlock value down the road if the song is a hit.
All in all, Royal is a pretty attractive platform for both artists and fans. It’s definitely a little ambitious at these price levels, but if you are a die hard fan, owning a stake is worth it. Being able to tokenize royalties is a BRAND NEW thing in the music space. It provides tremendous value for artists who otherwise might not see returns like this for YEARS, if EVER. It also provides value for NFT holders with royalty distribution, exclusive perks and a chance to own rights to your favorite artists tracks. You can watch an interview 3LAU did with CNBC, highlighting the project (skip to 4:40, unless you want to hear Pitbull speak).
LimeWire
Another project we’ve been digging into is the unreleased NFT platform LimeWire. LimeWire was THE household name back in the pirated music days. Literally all of the music we downloaded in the early 2000’s came directly from LimeWire, so it made sense when a few smart Austrian brothers nabbed the naming rights and brought in a heaping dose of nostalgia to the NFT space. The team is all doxxed, have pretty deep ties in the crypto world, and their advisory board has some notable names, including Wu-Tang Clan management. They haven't launched yet, but have raised $10M US beans in VC funding.
The marketplace itself will be centralized, making it easier for the average person to buy NFT’s with a credit card instead of having to navigate defi-land (which can be complex and annoying). This is definitely bullish for music NFT’s and the platform – accessibility is key. A recent CNBC article highlighted, “The new LimeWire will focus on music, letting users buy and trade rare items such as limited editions, unreleased demos and digital merchandise”. They also plan on releasing a governance token down the road to let holders have a say in policies, as well as votes on what artists will be featured on the site. It’ll be cool to see if this turns into the OpenSea of music NFTs, and will definitely keep an eye on the release, which is expected in Q4 of this year.
That’s all for this week, but please let us know if you’d want to see any specific projects highlighted in MC Music, always open for feedback and suggestions. Till next time. - Angelo
Various Musings:
Haven’t done this in quite some time. But with no new mints that we’d like to cover this week, we figured we’d share some more of what’s currently on our mind.
David Choe is dropping a project called MUNKO. Still extremely early, worth keeping an eye on – we love David Choe.
We’re open about our bullishness for Gh0stly Gh0sts in discord. Down pretty big from ATH. If the omnichain nft narrative ever takes off, gh0sts may run from being the “firsts.” Right now it’s a lotto ticket as infrastructure isn’t built out but may be worth keeping on your radar if you’re into the omnichain stuff. Tiny dinos is another play on this worth noting but we happen to like the gh0sts more.
If you’re minting Crayzillas this week, and are not looking to flip, patience with the blank canvas may prove to be valuable. If somebody is really keen on customizing their own, they have to purchase a canvas, and we predict the majority will be burnt very early as people will want to customize their Crayzilla instantly. The remaining ones may gain legacy value for somebody looking to enter the ecosystem but is keen to customize their own.
Keeping an eye on Chainrunners XR. Chain Runners has been a solid project above 1 ETH for the majority of the past few months and counts some big players in the space as community members. The sub collection is 20k but may be able to track 20-30% of the main collection due to the CC0 nature and 3D experiences the team is building. Minting in early May.
If Bad Influence was put on your radar from following us, highly recommend checking out this thread from the founder doxing himself. Super bullish on this one.
Invisible Friends has hit an all time low of ~5.2 ETH, from its 13 ETH floor on mint date. Another reminder that sometimes fomo-ing into the hype is not always the best move. Good thing to keep in mind when watching Pssssd post-mint. While we think The Possessed will do well, we wouldn’t recommend buying these types of projects the day of mint. Moonbirds ended up being the exception.
Speaking of Moonbirds, a 38 ETH floor within 1 week of mint leaves us speechless. Practically everyone fading this project has been wrong, including us. Unsure where this goes next, but another example of how many *experts* on NFT twitter have been brutally wrong again.
Twitter follower count is becoming less and less of a good metric for how projects will do. Droplets is now at .018 with extremely small volume only a few weeks after mint, but had 160k followers and seemed to be extremely sought after. If you manage to snag a WL for these, flipping immediately seems to be the correct move. Mentioned this a month ago but we believe other overhyped projects like Boki will suffer the same fate.
We’ve mentioned how we’re starting to see more and more NFT PFPs on Instagram but now we’re even seeing them pop up on LinkedIn from our IRL network (yes even BAYCs on LinkedIn). The concept of having a unique digital avatar is something we believe is inevitable. Think this further adds to a long-term bull case for blue chip NFTs with limited supplies such as BAYC/Punks/MAYC that continue to be a flex and now seemingly *command authority*.
Conclusion:
The Coinbase NFT platform, and more specifically the comment section, got our brains spinning about where the future of this space is heading (or at least the future of the PFP wave specifically).
PFP’s have always been socially-driven markets in nature, where, as we’ve mentioned dozens of times, people buy expensive ones to flex. Coinbase essentially building the ‘instagram of nfts’ is establishing the foundation of where we believe the future of the pfp wave will live, and we’re here for it. We also are now $COIN bulls (nfa dyor 😂🙏🦀).
Thank you for tuning in for another week of mayhem – we’ll see you on twitter/discord, anon.
Love,
W + P
Web3 Careers:
GM! Before jumping into this week’s jobs I want to flag this awesome resource on Web3 salaries that some folks on Twitter have crowdsourced. This is a great place to get a sense for how people are being compensated throughout Web3. If you have Web3 experience check out that tweet and share some insight into your past compensation anonymously through the google form.
As we approach summer and internships become ever so important for college students I want to flag Nansen’s Alpha Internship below. The vast majority of Web3 and NFT internships I’ve found are unpaid and frankly aren’t worth the MC community’s time. Not only does Nansen pay their interns but you’ll also be getting real hands on experience no fetching virtual coffee here.
Let us know if you’re hiring for incredible roles or if there are other types of opportunities you’d like to see in this section! Tweet/DM us @MintCalendar, @TheChild1996, or send an email to hello@mintcalendar.com.
Community/Social Media
Social Lead, Community and Communications (Kodex, Remote)
Communications Lead, Social and Community (Phantom, Remote US)
Marketing:
Senior Product Marketing Manager (Together Labs, Remote or Onsite Redwood, CA)
Product/Miscellaneous:
Internship, Alpha (Nansen, Remote Global)
NFT Sales – Software, Account Executive (Coinbase, Remote)
Senior Product Manager, NFT (Collectors, Remote US)
Growth Manager (Bifrost Finance, Remote Europe)
Software Development:
Lead Developer for NFT App (Nifty Orchard, Remote London, 100K)
Senior Smart Contract Engineer (Aave, Remote Western Europe/Americas)